With the impending return of students to school, now is an opportune moment to delve into the historical market trends of the most sought-after neighborhoods in the Vail Valley. The constant influx of news can often leave both buyers and sellers perplexed, which is why it is crucial to take a few minutes to thoroughly examine the micro-market trends throughout the valley and determine the genuine local trends.
As you peruse the data presented below, bear in mind that our focus is solely on residential properties in the specified areas. To provide an accurate assessment of trends spanning from pre-pandemic to post-pandemic, we have analyzed historical annual data from 2019 to 2022, as well as year-to-date figures for 2023.
At the bottom of this email, you’ll find some information on a local new development that you won’t want to miss, a beautiful golf course home in Denver, and a new construction home in Florida!
Until next time,
Inside The Numbers
Inventory has been hovering about 100 more than our record low from earlier this year, but we’re seeing more under contracts recently and the sold price per square foot is trending upward.
It is safe to say that we find ourselves in a fair value market, where neither sellers nor buyers hold a distinct advantage. It is worth noting that highly desirable properties tend to sell more quickly at higher prices compared to properties intentionally priced aggressively in the market. There are buyers who are willing to pay a premium for such properties. By exercising patience and working closely with real estate professionals, sellers can achieve impressive sales prices.
Below, we will explore various neighborhoods within the Vail Valley to demonstrate that contrary to what the news may portray, sold prices in our area are on an upward trend, days on the market are decreasing, and inventory remains limited. Considering these factors, it is now more crucial than ever to partner with an experienced real estate professional who possesses an in-depth understanding of the nuances of each neighborhood’s market dynamics, as there are even micro markets within each neighborhood.
*Data Source: Vail Board of Realtors MLS. All data deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Graphs demonstrate residential data from January-December from 2019-2022 annually and YTD for 2023.
Arrowhead
My Take – Arrowhead properties remain in high demand with low inventory; creating a strong market for the right homes. In 2019, we saw pre-pandemic sold prices averaging around $1.95M after nearly 200 days on the market. Year-to-date in 2023, we’re seeing an average sold price of $3.5M after just 2 months on the market. Properties in very good and/or remodeled condition, in a great location and priced appropriately tend to move quickly.
Generally, the average sold price per square foot has increased anywhere from $150-$200 from 2021 to 2023.
From mid-2021 to mid-2022, average sold prices per square foot ranged from $641 – $1,567.
From mid-2022 to mid-2023, average sold prices per square foot ranged from $685 – $1,700.
Avon
My Take – Avon has seen a resurgence of interest due to several new developments over the past few years, but specifically from Frontgate | Avon and the Westin Riverfront project. The Frontgate | Avon (FGA) development is over 70% sold out, but there is still equity potential available as they continue to sell the remaining residences in their amenity-rich building with deluxe designer furnishings. The Westin Riverfront development sold-out in the pre-construction phase and continue the luxurious design and connected amenities that the Westin provides.
From mid-2021 to mid-2022, average sold prices per square foot ranged from $366 – $1,662.
From mid-2022 to mid-2023, average sold prices per square foot ranged from $434 – $1,900.
Bachelor Gulch
My Take – Bachelor Gulch is the epitome of a micro market environment. It can be a sleepy area with very limited inventory and higher prices simply because of its location and specific nature of the offerings.
As of August 8th, there are only 5 active listings and just one of those is a single family residence. In the past, it was incredibly common for large homes to sit on the market for 200+ days. This current area has seen one of the largest drops in days on market compared to other area throughout the Vail Valley.
Of the three properties currently under contract, there is a single family home listed for nearly $11M that went under contract in just 6 days. The two other properties are condos listed for $3.95M and $6.5M and they went under contract in 4 days and 79 days respectively.
From mid-2021 to mid-2022, average sold prices per square foot ranged from $887 – $2,288.
From mid-2022 to mid-2023, average sold prices per square foot ranged from $1,054 – $2,580.
Beaver Creek
My Take – The Beaver Creek market is having a resurgence in demand as some buyers may perceive it as a better value than Vail Village or Lionshead properties. As of August 8th, there are 31 active listings and 13 are under contract. What’s interesting about this market is that it seems to be a good mix of both dated and refreshed properties moving.
Specifically, there was an updated townhome that had been on the market for over 300 days with no price reductions. In the past month or so, it saw a spike in showings which resulted in multiple offers and is now under contract. The sellers were firm in their price and were willing to be patient to achieve it.
From mid-2021 to mid-2022, average sold prices per square foot ranged from $630 – $2,116.
From mid-2022 to mid-2023, average sold prices per square foot ranged from $588 – $2,619.
Cordillera
My Take – The three mountain neighborhoods of Cordillera (Summit, Divide, Ranch) have seen more of a steady increase in sold price per square foot since the height of the pandemic. Inventory has remained low compared to pre-pandemic years, which has resulted in continued high demand.
In mid-2021 to mid-2022, average sold prices per square foot ranged from $342 – $904.
In 2022-2023, average sold prices per square foot ranged from $474 – $961.
The fourth and perhaps most desired neighborhood of Cordillera (Valley Club), has a higher demand and therefore higher prices and price per square foot. With the new Club Residences development adjacent to the Clubhouse, CVC is a hot spot right now. As of August 8th, there are only 3 active listings and the lowest priced home available is for $7.9M. The pending homes prices are anywhere from $1,000 – $1,585 per square foot.
From mid-2021 to mid-2022, average sold prices per square foot ranged from $697 – $1,044.
From mid-2022 to mid-2023, average sold prices per square foot ranged from $898 – $1,250.
Eagle
My Take – Eagle is another area that has seen a robust amount of growth and appreciation over the last few years. There are a couple of new developments underway for local housing which will continue to drive demand and prices up in the coming year.
EAGLE RANCH
Eagle Ranch specifically has seen an increase in average $150-$200 price per square foot over the last couple of years.
From mid-2021 to mid-2022, Eagle Ranch average sold prices per square foot ranged from $247 – $652.
From mid-2022 to mid-2023, Eagle Ranch average sold prices per square foot ranged from $272 – $849.
FROST CREEK
Frost Creek has also seen an noteworthy increase in prices. A custom home sold for $799 PPSF in 2021, $958 PPSF in 2022 and now currently one home listed at $1,530 PPSF. For the Hunters View enclave, the homes sold for $475-$507 PPSF in mid 2021–mid 2022 and from mid 2022 – mid 2023, they sold at $758-$992 PPSF. Currently, there are 4 homes at Hunters View, including my listing which is listed at $758 PPSF (click here for property website), while the other 3 Hunters View homes are listed over $900 PPSF!
Gypsum
My Take – Gypsum is yet another area that has seen a robust amount of growth and appreciation over the last few years. Again, there are several of new developments underway for local housing which will continue to drive demand and prices up in the coming year. In addition, there are other projects in the approval stage for both Eagle and Gypsum that will breathe new life in to these areas as they continue to grow as well. As of August 8th, there are 63 pending homes in Gypsum and many of the majority of those are the new development projects.
From mid-2021 to mid-2022, average sold prices per square foot ranged from $217 – $681.
From mid-2022 to mid-2023, average sold prices per square foot ranged from $204 – $800.
Singletree
My Take – Singletree has seen a slower, steady increase in sold price per square foot over the last few years and part of that is simply because of lack of inventory and that many properties are older and in need of refreshing or updates. Buyers tend to be more price sensitive in this area, so properties that are aggressively priced tend to sit on the market longer than those that are priced at a fair market value.
From mid-2021 to mid-2022, average sold prices per square foot ranged from $368 – $931.
From mid-2022 to mid-2023, average sold prices per square foot ranged from $386 – $957.
Vail Village + Lionshead
My Take – Vail Village and Lionshead is a unique area because there is no land left to develop, so properties are affected more by the market value, than by other external factors. 36 of the 64 sales in the past year were above $3M and of the currently active properties, about 50% of those are under $5M.
There’s also currently a property on Rockledge Road that is one of the first lots chosen and originally built on in 1962 listed for $19M (or $8,539 per square foot). The home is a tear down, so you are essentially paying a premium for land in a premier location.
From mid-2021 to mid-2022, average sold prices per square foot ranged from $1,100 – $3,925**.
From mid-2022 to mid-2023, average sold prices per square foot ranged from $1,145 – $4,510.
**There are two outliers at $4,490 and $6,535
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