As September draws to a close, fall has officially arrived in Vail. The aspens are beginning their brilliant transformation from green to gold, while the welcome September rains have refreshed the valley and added to the anticipation of what we hope will be a memorable winter season ahead. OpenSnow.com looked at the ten El Niño winters since 1982 and compared them to typical snow levels at Vail Mountain. Normally, by March 31st, the snowpack there holds about 18.8 inches of water (the “snow water equivalent” which measures how much water is locked up in the snow). During El Niño winters, that number came in slightly higher, at 19.6 inches – about 104% of normal. So, on average, El Niño years haven’t meant less snow at Vail; if anything, they’ve been just a touch above average. For timing, here is the change in SWE each month during those ten winters, against the 30-year median change for that month:
Trip To The Big Apple
Earlier this month, I celebrated my birthday with a whirlwind getaway to New York City; taking in the US Open and watching Taylor Fritz play, enjoying a Broadway show, spending an afternoon at MoMA, and, of course, indulging in some exceptional dining along the way. After an incredibly busy summer, it was wonderful to step away for a few days and experience the energy of the city in September rather than the depths of winter. A refreshing change of pace; even if, in real estate, you’re never entirely off the clock!
Renovation Update
We’re nearing the finish line, and it’s incredibly rewarding to see the vision finally come together. The finishing details are being installed, the furnishings and décor are finding their place as each day brings us a little closer to the completed transformation.
I’ll be sharing the full reveal on Instagram, and I’m considering a deeper look at the renovation journey in next month’s newsletter – from the design decisions and materials to a few lessons learned along the way. If there’s something you’d particularly like to know about the process, I’d love to hear it. Stay tuned!
A Tale of Two Markets
If there’s one thing I’ve learned in my 42+ years here, it’s that the Vail Valley is a micro market, and it’s a truer statement now more than ever. Take this interesting case study: a 2-bedroom penthouse condo and a single-family home about 1.5 miles away are listed in the same luxury price range (i.e. above $6M). Both properties have the same south-facing mountain views, are in the same zip code, and yet they attract completely different buyers who want completely different things and therefore have had completely different activity levels.
Some areas are seeing corrections, but it’s not an overall trend, and headlines rarely tell you what’s happening on your street. That’s where a little creativity comes in. I was recently made aware of a new loan option for public school employees that I want to make you aware of. The CHFA Schools To Home Program is a Colorado initiative providing public school employees with down payment and closing cost assistance of up to 25% of their first mortgage amount via a deferred second loan, paired with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and a shared-appreciation structure This program is open to full-time employees of an eligible Colorado public schools (teachers, support staff, nutritionists, bus drivers, janitors etc) and must be a Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac approved property.
If you’d like to be connected to a mortgage loan professional who can answer all of your questions about this program, let me know as I would be thrilled to connect you. Whether you’re buying or selling, I’d love to talk through what all of this means for you.
In This Newsletter:
- Who Is The Vail Valley Buyer In 2026 – For the past few months, we’ve been focusing on the market trends themselves and identifying which neighborhoods are outperforming others this year. However, another piece of the puzzle that is always intriguing to look at is the actual buyer profile of our new neighbors moving into the Vail Valley in 2026. Keep scrolling for the full analysis and let me know if anything surprised you.
- Access To Private, Exclusive Vail Listings – Don’t forget that I have exclusive access to a large list of off-market properties across the Vail Valley. If you’re not seeing what you want on the public market, reach out to me and I’d be happy to do some digging for you.
- New Listings Not To Miss – Don’t forget to check out my listings below in this email! Ask me about potential upcoming properties that may not be on the market.
As always, thank you for reading and being part of this community. If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply want to chat about the market or local lifestyle, I’d love to connect – just reply or reach out directly.
Who is the Vail Valley buyer in 2026?
For the past few months, we’ve been focusing on the market trends themselves and identifying which neighborhoods are outperforming others this year. However, another piece of the puzzle that is always intriguing to look at is the actual buyer profile of our new neighbors moving into the Vail Valley in 2026.
Of everyone who closed on a home here this year, 56.4% were local buyers with 13.4% coming from the Front Range (your Denver, Boulder, Colorado Springs crowd – meaning nearly 7 in 10 buyers were already Colorado residents before purchasing in the Vail Valley. Out of state buyers make up about 30% of purchasers, while international buyers register below 1%. Bear in mind that the international number may actually be higher than reported because many international buyers often utilize an LLC within the United States when purchasing real estate here.
**January 1 – August 31, 2026. Source: Land Title Guarantee Company
Where do out-of-state buyers flock from?
Our biggest feeder markets outside of Colorado are California, Texas, Florida and Illinois with a much smaller, but steady flow coming from Minnesota, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina. That’s a fairly diverse geographical mix, but it tracks with what you’d expect. Buyers are coming from big economic hubs (Chicago, the Bay Area, Dallas, New York etc) and generally have the liquidity to buy a second – or third – home. The meaningful midwest contingent from similar colder climates of Minnesota, Michigan and Ohio are likely shopping for turnkey mountain living with premier, easy ski access.
**January 1 – August 31, 2026. Source: Land Title Guarantee Company
How They’re Paying Tells A Story
This is where the Vail Valley often separates itself from the rest of the state. 48% of buyers paid cash, 48% used conventional financing, while FHA, VA and private financing accounted for just 4.4% of all transactions. Translation: this remains a well-capitalized buyer pool. We’re not seeing the financing strain that’s showing up in broader market data because many Vail Valley buyers aren’t rate-shopping; they’re decision making.
**January 1 – September 22, 2026. Source: Vail MLS
Now, zooming out to the state as a whole.
Colorado’s statewide market is telling a noticeably different story than the Vail Valley. Statewide, closed sales are down 11.3% year over year, pending contracts fell 3.7% and homes are sitting on the market longer – up to 65 days on average (an 8.3% increase). Active inventory actually declined 6.2% even with slower demand, which is nudging the state towards a more buyer-friendly posture even as the median price held steady at $550,000.
The single-family median prices decreased less than 1%, while the townhome-condo sales dropped over 16% with days on market climbing towards 80 days. That’s indicative of a market likely working through some friction, particularly in the more financing dependent segment.
Here is the interesting contrast: while the state is tipping toward buyers thanks to financing-sensitive demand pulling back, the local Vail Valley buyer pool – cash-heavy, largely already Colorado based, and shopping in a price bracket where mortgage rates matter less – isn’t exposed to the same pressure. It doesn’t mean that we’re immune to a broader stabilization, but it does mean the Vail Valley tends to move on a different rhythm than the larger cities.
Why they keep coming
It’s worth remembering why people relocate to Colorado in the first place. Job growth is still the number one driver statewide, and Colorado income typically runs about 18% aove the national median. But let’s be honest, nobody is buying a ski chalet or fairway frontage home for the job market. They’re buying it for exactly what got me to stay back in 1984. The mountains, the skiing, the golf and the version of a life you can’t get from a spreadsheet. Statewide relocation trends back that up – outdoor recreation and lifestyle consistently rank among the top reasons people choose Colorado and nowhere deliveres on that promise quite like the Vail Valley.
The Bottom Line
If you’re a buyer, you’re competing against a well-capitalized, largely regional pool who knows exactly what they want and often isn’t waiting around for rates to move. If you’re a seller: pricing realistically still matters because even our resilient market isn’t disconnected from a state that’s shifting some leverage back to buyers. As always, if you want hyper-localized, micro market numbers behind any specific neighborhood or golf community, you know where to find me!
Ask me about potential opportunities for off-market properties!
A rare opportunity to reimagine and personalize a visionary Vail residence that was truly ahead of its time. Crafted by renowned Beck Builders in 1994, this 4,775-square-foot contemporary mountain home blended innovative functionality with timeless architectural appeal long before it became mainstream. Today, it offers the next owner an exceptional opportunity to create a modern legacy while preserving its…VIEW MORE DETAILS
Rarely offered, this south-facing, top-floor penthouse at The Ritz-Carlton Residences in Lionshead captures expansive views of Vail Mountain from a dramatic two-story setting with soaring vaulted ceilings and exceptional natural light. Currently the only two-bedroom penthouse offered for sale in the building, and representing the lowest price per square foot among residences currently available, this exceptional property presents a distinctive opportunity within one of Vail’s most recognized luxury complexes. Beautifully appointed in a refined mountain-modern style, this residence combines timeless alpine character with sophisticated finishes and quality craftsmanship throughout. Recent enhancements totaling approximately $75,000 include elegant new furnishings, updated lighting and refreshed paint, creating a polished, turnkey mountain retreat…VIEW MORE DETAILS
A true ”Diamond in the Rough” gem for an outdoor lover’s dream! Offered at over $120,000 below assessed value. Welcome to ”Sweetwater Perch”– for those who crave adventure and tranquility. Perched atop a gentle knoll in the peaceful Sweetwater Ranch area, this lakefront oasis offers breathtaking 360-degree views that are sure to inspire. Whether you’re a writer, artist, or simply someone who loves the great outdoors, this property provides the perfect setting. This charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home features a spacious, open floor plan and generously sized bedrooms, creating a relaxing retreat for family and friends. The panoramic vistas are among the best in the county, making every day feel like a getaway. Endless outdoor activities await literally steps from your door–enjoy paddle boarding, fishing, hiking, bird watching….VIEW MORE DETAILS
In Edwards, Colorado, over five and a half acres of south-facing high-desert terrain awaits your vision. This is not JUST a building site, it is a position. Set within the gates of the Summit at Cordillera, this exceptional homesite offers a rare opportunity to create a legacy mountain residence in one of the Vail Valley’s most coveted settings. Surrounded by native sagebrush, golden grasses, and seasonal wildflowers, the property captures sweeping panoramic views of layered mountain ranges and enjoys a sun-drenched orientation that enhances both year-round comfort and natural…VIEW MORE DETAILS
Rarely does an opportunity like this present itself, a vacant lot with no HOA Dues! Tucked at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, this 2.71+/- homesite captures expansive southwest views toward Hardscrabble Mountain and overlooks the scenic Brush Creek Valley, offering both privacy and breathtaking Colorado beauty. Located in unincorporated Eagle County within the Eagle Hills Subdivision, in the neighborhood known as Upper Kaibab, this property offers flexibility with limited covenants (available upon request). A previous soils test and topographical survey completed in 2017…VIEW MORE DETAILS